Weekly Real Estate Take - October 2026 - Week 4

Key Takeaways from the October Week 4 Data

• New Listings Hit an Annual Low (29 Units): For the first time in 2026, fresh single-family inventory dipped below the 30-mark. The supply pipeline is visibly tapering off as sellers pull back from launching new campaigns this close to the November/December holiday season.

• Sales Rebound 50% Off the Floor: After hitting a seasonal low of 10 sales in Week 3, transaction volume bounced back to 15 completed deals, re-establishing a steady late-autumn baseline.

• Absorption Climbs to 51.7%: With new supply contracting to 29 and sales recovering to 15, the weekly absorption rate jumped more than 21 percentage points to 51.7%. The market absorbed more than half the volume of incoming inventory this week.

• Failed Listings Continue to Exceed Sales: Cancelled and expired listings ticked back up to 23, outpacing successful transactions (15) once again. Across the four weeks of October to date, failed listings (99) heavily outweigh completed sales (62), underscoring that buyers remain completely unforgiving of overpricing.

• Pre-Decision Week Dynamics: This rebound occurred directly ahead of the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, where markets are closely weighing whether the central bank will maintain its 2.25% policy rate or introduce a modest quarter-point adjustment.

Synopsis for a Nanaimo Homeowner Planning Their Next Move

The final full week of October highlights a late-fall market defined by contracting incoming supply and uncompromising buyer discipline.

For Sellers:

The rapid drop to 29 new listings works in your favor by sharply curtailing your immediate new competition. If your property is already active, you are competing against fewer fresh alternatives than at any point earlier this year. However, with 23 cancellations logging this week, buyers are demonstrating that lower supply does not equal desperation. If your property is turn-key and priced strictly to recent fall sales, it will capture the active buyer pool. If it carries an aspirational price tag, it risks sitting untouched into the winter freeze.

For Buyers:

The jump to 51.7% absorption shows that quality, well-priced homes are still moving briskly when they appear. While the flow of brand-new choices has slowed to a trickle, the cumulative weight of 99 failed listings across October offers an exceptional secondary shopping ground. Many sellers of these delisted properties are facing the reality of carrying their homes through the winter and may be far more flexible on price, subject terms, and closing dates ahead of year-end.

Interested in Your Home's Value?

Just like monitoring the value of your investment portfolio, it is important to monitor the value of your real estate holdings. Your BC Assessment Value should never be relied upon for financial decisions. Email me for a personalized market assessment. I respond to every inquiry personally and prioritize open communication with my clients. I'm here to help!

Notable New Listings

I like to start by outlining the best value based on $/sqft. The 3 best value homes listed this week are 7810 Aats Rd a 4 bed, 6 bath, 5,800 sqft Lower Lantzville home listed for $889,000 ($153/sqft), 6728 Medd Rd a 4 bed, 3 bath, 3,172 sqft North Nanaimo home listed for $879,900 ($277/sqft), 135 Townsite Rd a 4 bed, 4 bath, 2,877 sqft Brechin Hill home listed for $799,000 ($278/sqft).

The 3 homes listed this week with the highest $/sqft are 519 Duke St a 2 bed, 2 bath, 586 sqft South Nanaimo home listed for $499999 ($853/sqft), 2780 RITTEN Rd a 2 bed, 3 bath, 1,566 sqft Cedar home listed for $1,299,000 ($830/sqft), 5025 Hinrich View a 5 bed, 8 bath, 8,247 sqft Hammond Bay home listed for $5,750,000 ($697/sqft).

The 3 homes priced the most below their assessed value are 2780 RITTEN Rd a 2 bed, 3 bath, 1,566 sqft Cedar home listed for $1,299,000 (24% below its tax-assessed value), 7810 Aats Rd a 4 bed, 6 bath, 5,800 sqft Lower Lantzville home listed for $889,000 (23% below its tax-assessed value), 135 Townsite Rd a 4 bed, 4 bath, 2,877 sqft Brechin Hill home listed for $799,000 (17% below its tax-assessed value).

The 3 least expensive new listings this week are 519 Duke St a 2 bed, 2 bath, 586 sqft South Nanaimo home listed for $499,999. 2168 Yellow Point Rd a 2 bed, 1 bath, 871 sqft Cedar home listed for $585,000. 555 Weber St a 3 bed, 1 bath, 1106 sqft South Nanaimo home listed for $629,900.

The 3 most expensive new listings this week are 5025 Hinrich View a 5 bed, 8 bath, 8,247 sqft Hammond Bay home listed for $5,750,000. 156 Golden Oaks Cres a 3 bed, 4 bath, 3,596 sqft Hammond Bay home listed for $1,895,000. 2780 RITTEN Rd a 2 bed, 3 bath, 1,566 sqft Cedar home listed for $1,299,000.

Notable New Sales

The 3 buyers that secured the largest discounts this week are the buyers of 66 Kennedy St who secured a 10% discount off the $1,050,000 asking price (sale price $940,000). The buyers of 3793 Marjorie Way who secured a 7% discount off the $1,099,900 asking price (sale price $1,025,000). The buyers of 7115 Huddlestone Rd who secured a 6% discount off the $1,199,900 asking price (sale price $1,131,035).

The 3 highest cost per sqft sales this week were 1715 Country Hills Dr a 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,360 sqft Chase River home sold for $750,000 ($551/sqft), 266 Crestline Terr a 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,480 sqft Hammond Bay home sold for $1,345,000 ($542/sqft), 2674 Tamara Dr a 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,481 sqft Diver Lake home sold for $740,000 ($500/sqft).

The 3 highest sales this week were 181 Prince John Way a 6 bed, 4 bath, 4,591 sqft Departure Bay home sold for $1,395,000. 266 Crestline Terr a 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,480 sqft Hammond Bay home sold for $1,345,000. 4626 Sheridan Ridge Rd a 6 bed, 5 bath, 4,003 sqft North Nanaimo home sold for $1,266,500

If you are looking for details on a recent sale not mentioned here, email me and I will send you the sale price.

Listing Data

(click links below to access reports)

This Week in John’s Life

It was another exceptionally rewarding week on the trading board as we helped clients reach major milestones right across the mid-Island:

• Nanaimo Waterfront Jewel: Successfully removed subjects on a spectacular oceanfront estate—a truly special property that was meticulously and lovingly cared for by my European client for over two decades. Helping usher in the next chapter for an estate with that much history is always an honor.

• Westwood Lake Suited Family Home: Officially crossed the finish line to SOLD on a sought-after home near the Westwood Lake trail system.

• Uplands First-Time Purchase: Had the absolute privilege of helping an excited buyer secure their very first condo in the Uplands neighborhood.

• Parksville Condo: Removed subjects on a bright, sunny turnkey condo down in Parksville.

Seeing transactions cross the finish line for first-time buyers, family upsizers, and longtime legacy property owners alike proves that when pricing, marketing, and presentation align, serious momentum follows.

On the educational front, Wednesday was an absolute highlight. I hosted two RBC Estate Planning seminars; and both the morning session at Woodgrove and the afternoon session at the downtown Commercial Street branch were completely sold out.

The engagement in both rooms was incredible. Local homeowners and retirees walked away equipped with practical, candid knowledge on how to maximize their retirement, protect their hard-earned equity, and navigate complex estate transitions with clarity and peace of mind. We will definitely continue hosting and announcing these sessions right here in the newsletter; if you missed this round, keep an eye out for our next dates.

On the family front, Sunday night was as good as it gets. My mom came over for dinner again; having her living right here in Nanaimo where popping over for a home-cooked meal is an easy reality is something I’m making sure to prioritize.

To make the evening even better, Avery came up from UVic for the weekend to surprise us, bringing three generations together around the dinner table.

After dinner, I had the pleasure of driving Avery back down the Malahat to Victoria. Having that uninterrupted one-on-one time in the car to catch up on her university classes, campus life, and her latest adventures was the highlight of my week. At 18 years old, man, does time move fast. If you're raising kids or watching your family grow, embrace every single one of these moments while you can.

Thinking through your own year-end real estate plans, curious about our upcoming estate planning sessions, or wondering what your home's equity looks like today? Reply directly to this email or send me a message; let’s talk strategy.

- John Cooper

Reach out to me directly at:

john@johncooper.ca or 250-619-9207.

Whether you’re looking for further clarification on the points and insights above, would like to discover your specific home value, or just have real estate questions you’d like answered, I’d love to hear from you!