Weekly Real Estate Take - October 2026 - Week 3

Key Takeaways from the October Week 3 Data

• Sales Hit a 9-Month Low (10 Units): Signed deals dropped to just 10 transactions, marking the slowest single week of buyer activity since mid-January (when sales hit 7). Buyer urgency has visibly downshifted across the mid-Island.

• New Supply Tapers to 33 Listings: Fresh listings declined to 33, down nearly 20% from last week and matching the low-water mark of late July. The autumn listing window is rapidly closing as homeowners decide against launching into late fall.

• Absorption Compresses to 30.3%: Following Week 1's initial surge (56.8%) and Week 2's moderation (39.0%), the absorption rate cooled to 30.3%, settling right at the lower edge of balanced market conditions.

• Cancellations Ease to 18: Delistings and contract expirations fell under 20 for the first time in October, following heavy cleanouts in previous weeks (30 in Week 1, 28 in Week 2).

• Pre-Announcement Hesitation: With the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement of the year scheduled for Wednesday, October 28, 2026, buyers appear to be hitting a short-term pause to confirm policy direction and mortgage guidelines before committing to late-Q4 purchases.

   

Synopsis for a Nanaimo Homeowner Planning Their Next Move

Late October reflects a market shifting gears from autumn activity into early seasonal pre-winter mode.

For Sellers:

The transaction window to close before the calendar year wraps up is effectively here. With standard 30-to-60-day completion dates, any deal agreed upon after late October pushes completion into December or early January. With weekly sales down to 10, buyers currently in the market are fewer and much more price-conscious. To capture a committed buyer before the late-November freeze, holding a firm line on ambitious pricing is counterproductive; your list price must align directly with recent closed comps.

For Buyers:

The slowing pace works directly in your favour. With weekly absorption sitting near 30% and overall demand quiet, multiple-offer situations are virtually non-existent for standard single-family homes. While incoming choices contracted to 33 new listings this week, you have accumulated choices across active inventory. This window gives you room to negotiate lower purchase prices, include standard financing and inspection protections, and request tailored completion dates without feeling rushed.

Interested in Your Home's Value?

Just like monitoring the value of your investment portfolio, it is important to monitor the value of your real estate holdings. Your BC Assessment Value should never be relied upon for financial decisions. Email me for a personalized market assessment. I respond to every inquiry personally and prioritize open communication with my clients. I'm here to help!

Notable New Listings

I like to start by outlining the best value based on $/sqft. The 3 best value homes listed this week are 2300 East Wellington Rd a 3 bed, 3 bath, 14,080 sqft South Jingle Pot home listed for $3,290,000 ($234/sqft), 5334 Georgiaview Cres a 5 bed, 3 bath, 3,173 sqft North Nanaimo home listed for $950,000 ($299/sqft), 6439 Nidri Pl a 5 bed, 3 bath, 2,868 sqft North Nanaimo home listed for $950,000 ($331/sqft).

The 3 homes listed this week with the highest $/sqft are 7902 Lantzville Rd a 2 bed, 1 bath, 850 sqft Lower Lantzville home listed for $1,499,000 ($1764/sqft), 7336 High Ridge Cres a 3 bed, 3 bath, 2,475 sqft Upper Lantzville home listed for $1,660,000 ($671/sqft), 390 Georgia Ave a 2 bed, 1 bath, 871 sqft University District home listed for $575,000 ($660/sqft).

The 3 homes priced the most below their assessed value are 7902 Lantzville Rd a 2 bed, 1 bath, 850 sqft Lower Lantzville home listed for $1,499,000 (26% below its tax-assessed value), 646 Alyssa Pl a 7 bed, 4 bath, 2,511 sqft University District home listed for $849,900 (10% below its tax-assessed value), 667 Abby Lane a 6 bed, 4 bath, 2,530 sqft University District home listed for $895,000 (6% below its tax-assessed value).

The 3 least expensive new listings this week are 40 Irwin St a 2 bed, 1 bath, 727 sqft Old City home listed for $399,999. 243 Princess St a 3 bed, 2 bath, 862 sqft South Nanaimo home listed for $479,900. 390 Georgia Ave a 2 bed, 1 bath, 871 sqft University District home listed for $575,000.

The 3 most expensive new listings this week are 2300 East Wellington Rd a 3 bed, 3 bath, 14,080 sqft South Jingle Pot home listed for $3,290,000. 7481 Copley Ridge Dr a 4 bed, 3 bath, 3,177 sqft Upper Lantzville home listed for $1,669,900. 7336 High Ridge Cres a 3 bed, 3 bath, 2,475 sqft Upper Lantzville home listed for $1,660,000.

Notable New Sales

The 3 buyers that secured the largest discounts this week are the buyers of 3575 Uplands Dr who secured a 21% discount off the $1,198,000 asking price (sale price $950,000). The buyers of 315 View St who secured a 11% discount off the $450,000 asking price (sale price $402,500). The buyers of 5254 Sherbourne Dr who secured a 11% discount off the $1,195,900 asking price (sale price $1,070,000).

The 3 highest cost per sqft sales this week were 660 Albert St a 1 bed, 1 bath, 546 sqft Old City home sold for $345,000 ($632/sqft), 3575 Uplands Dr a 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,516 sqft Uplands home sold for $950,000 ($378/sqft), 5254 Sherbourne Dr a 7 bed, 4 bath, 2,915 sqft Pleasant Valley home sold for $1,070,000 ($367/sqft).

The 3 highest sales this week were 5254 Sherbourne Dr a 7 bed, 4 bath, 2,915 sqft Pleasant Valley home sold for $1,070,000. 2789 Vanappelen Rd a 5 bed, 4 bath, 3,098 sqft Cedar home sold for $1,070,000. 3575 Uplands Dr a 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,516 sqft Uplands home sold for $950,000.

If you are looking for details on a recent sale not mentioned here, email me and I will send you the sale price.

Listing Data

(click links below to access reports)

This Week in John’s Life

There is truly nothing quite like Thanksgiving dinner at home. This year, my mom came over and I had the privilege of cooking for her; a simple moment that meant the world to me. After so many years of her living across the water in White Rock, having her right here in Nanaimo where we can share holiday meals together is a gift I don't take for granted. It was the perfect pause before diving straight into one of the busiest, highest-velocity trading weeks of the entire fall.

High-Volume Deal Velocity Across the Island

If anyone is wondering whether serious deals are still coming together in this late-fall window, you only need to look at this week's board. Monique and I kept our foot firmly on the gas, orchestrating subject removals and accepted offers right across the mid-Island:

• Upper Lantzville New Build: Officially introduced an exceptional, high-end new construction home to the market.

• South Nanaimo Character Home: Successfully removed subjects on a charming character property full of warmth.

• Newcastle Fixer-Upper: Finalized subject removal on a fantastic project home packed with upside potential in Newcastle.

• Westwood Lake Suited Home: Secured an accepted offer on a sought-after home complete with an authorized suite near the trails.

• Nanoose Waterfront Cottage: Accepted offer locked in on a picturesque beachfront cottage in Nanoose Bay.

• Parksville Condo: Finalized an accepted offer on a bright, turnkey condo opportunity.

• Uplands Condo: Put together another accepted offer on a well-positioned condo in the Uplands neighborhood.

   

Seeing this breadth of activity, spanning character homes, oceanfront retreats, new builds, and multi-generational suites reinforces what we see every single day on the ground: serious buyers are actively transacting when properties are positioned with clarity, precision, and realistic pricing.

Beyond active deal-making, continuing education and industry alignment remain a massive priority. I spent a great day at the Vancouver Island Conference Centre attending the VIREB Fall Conference, connecting with industry colleagues and digging into the economic forecast and regulatory trends steering our regional market.

Looking ahead to this Wednesday, I am honored to return as the guest speaker for two RBC Estate Planning seminars:

• Morning Session (10:30 AM): Woodgrove RBC branch — SOLD OUT

• Afternoon Session (2:00 PM): Downtown Nanaimo RBC branch (Commercial Street)

   

I genuinely love hosting these sessions alongside our trusted partners. So many local homeowners and families are currently trying to navigate complex, high-stakes decisions; whether that means planning out an estate, downsizing a longtime family property, or rightsizing equity to support lifestyle changes. These sessions are designed to be productive, candid, completely free, and zero-pressure.

Curious about our fresh Upper Lantzville launch, looking to chat through your own year-end exit strategy, or hoping to catch one of our estate planning sessions? Reply directly to this email or send me a message—let’s talk strategy.

- John Cooper

Reach out to me directly at:

john@johncooper.ca or 250-619-9207.

Whether you’re looking for further clarification on the points and insights above, would like to discover your specific home value, or just have real estate questions you’d like answered, I’d love to hear from you!